the middle of the beginning of the beginning of the middle of the end

I have found that my optimism—much like my obsession with Trader Joe’s turkey burgers and my going to the gym phase—is usually fleeting.

I really did try to remain uncharacteristically excited and hopeful following the veritable news orgy last night after another one of Trump’s “best people” was found guilty and a different “very fine man” told us what we already know: that Trump paid off a porn star to protect his campaign and committed a federal crime in doing so.

All of this to say, I had planned to write a trademark Sarah Gruen listicle in reaction to the Michael Cohen plea and Paul Manafort verdict. You know, the kind that has become “kind of my thing” in the last few months.

Had I written said listicle last night when the allegations broke instead of going to see “Crazy Rich Asians,” it would have been a delightfully snarky little number. There would have been ostrich coat jokes (one probably would have taken the form of Manafort’s memoir being called Orange is the New Ostrich is the New Black). There would have been a musical parody of some kind. And there would have been my pithy response to my dad’s confident declaration that “this must be the end for Trump. They’ve got him.”

But one day after the MSNBC breaking news orgy, it all seems…too hopeful. Don’t get me wrong—like so many others, I was amazed by the numerous breakthroughs that broke through last night. I stayed up late watching Rachel Maddow, furiously texting my friends in the style of Trump tweeting when he watches Fox and Friends. These all caps text messages contained brilliant content like “WICKED WITCH DONALD TRUMP IS BEING SENT TO AZKABAN WITH ALL THE OTHER WITCHES BEING HUNTED,” and “SOMEBODY GET ME A DIET COKE, PLEASE.” That second one was both a reference to the Cohen tape and an actual text to my roommate asking her to buy me a Ginger Lime Diet Coke at CVS.

I ultimately think I’d be optimistic—lastingly optimistic, that is—if I saw something different or groundbreaking not just in the news, but in the Republican response to the news. And, unsurprisingly, there has been zero change in response—or lack thereof—from those who actually have the power to do anything about the shitstorm happening around us.

Despite the numerous pronouncements from Democrats in office, I haven’t heard a thing from congressional and Senate Republicans. I haven’t seen any tweets from the party of law and order about how this is an attack on law and order. I saw no cable appearances from the leaders of the GOP. Neither the Speaker of the House nor the Senate Majority leader has made a peep.

I haven’t heard anyone from across the aisle step up to cosponsor a bill to protect the special counsel.

I haven’t heard calls to deport this criminal or cries to lock him up.

And most notably, I haven’t heard any Republican talk about impeachment. No one on the right has hinted that perhaps the tipping point has come—that Trump is more trouble than he’s worth, that a unindicted co-conspiring criminal should not be in office. And I’m genuinely curious why.

It’s not because the replacement would be bad for the party. Mike Pence is a far better Republican. Steady and stable, cunning and cold, he will happy pen his name on any Medicare overhaul or tax cut for the wealthy. He’ll put the most vehemently anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ+ justices on the Supreme Court. Mike Pence will appease donors and campaign for big coal. He won’t start a trade war, and he’ll make lucrative deals with Russia far more sneakily than his boss.

It’s not like there’s no precedent for impeachment. If there’s anything the podcast Slow Burn has taught me, it’s that the Republican party is no stranger to impeaching those who have fucked with elections and/or White House interns. And it’s not like if President Hillary Clinton were found to be an unindicted co-conspirator, Republicans wouldn’t be drawing up papers right now.

And it’s not for a lack of evidence—or lack of certainty that Trump is guilty. Because Trump is undoubtedly, obviously, absolutely guilty. He literally admitted it on television, on Twitter, and on tape multiple times! This is hardly an issue of “beyond a reasonable doubt” (a standard that doesn’t apply to impeachment but whatever)—it’s pretty darn clear that Trump has committed impeachable offenses.

So why not impeach him? Why not do something?

Like the mediocre end to the Harry Potter film franchise, my guess comes in two parts:

The first part is that if the 2016 election taught Republicans anything, it’s that they are unpopular. Voters who like Trump like Trump—crimes, racism, porn-star payoffs and all—and those who stick with passionate Trump voters believe they will win in November. Pence is like Rubio and Cruz and all the other Republicans who lost to Trump two years ago; he’ll get the job done, but he won’t rally the base enough to land congressmen a job in 2020.

The second part is that if 2018 taught Republicans anything, it’s that their policies are unpopular. There’s a reason GO­P candidates aren’t running on the tax cut, their attempt to repeal the ACA, or their refusal to enact stricter gun laws. It’s because people decidedly disapprove of the tax cut. They decidedly disapprove of the Republican effort to replace Obamacare. And they overwhelmingly want stricter background checks and common-sense gun reform.

Even hot-button issues like abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, climate change, and immigration leave Republicans at a loss; people feel that women have the right to an abortion in at least some circumstances, they are in favor of equal protection for people of all sexualities and gender identities, they believe in and want to stop global warming, they support immigration.

So although Trump, too, is vehemently against what the majority of voters want, it doesn’t matter, because he’s enough of a distraction to not have to deal with it. With Pence in charge, Republicans would actually have to face the fact that their policies legitimately suck. With Trump, they simply have to address the latest news story, tell their constituents that they’re building a wall, and let the media do its thing focusing on anything other than the bad policies the GOP is responsible for.

Of course, all of this is complicated by the fact that Democrats won’t touch impeachment either. Though blue representatives took to Twitter and news programs to talk about the rampant corruption in the Trump administration, I haven’t seen anyone come out and say that impeachment is on the table—Nancy Pelosi in fact said the opposite.

I totally get that it’s a double standard to insist the Republicans talk impeachment without also saying the Democrats do the same. I think the main differences are that a) Republicans control the government and could actually do something right now and b) Republicans have literally said that they want Democrats to “take the bait” and talk impeachment because they think it will turn off Democratic voters. As backwards as this logic is, if not talking impeachment is not taking the bait, and if not taking the bait means we’ll win in November, therefore allowing us to impeach, then I think the current Democratic dance around the “i” word justifies the means.

Note: I think this line of thinking—that Democrats can only talk impeachment to the exclusion of the issues, therefore alienating their constituents—is steamy garbage. But if they feel it’s the best path, who am I to say don’t focus on the really important stuff.

What does all of this mean in regards to the Cohen and Manafort stuff? Well, it means that no matter what Cohen or Giuliani or Trump or Schumer or Blitzer or Maddow say, nothing is different today than it was 3 days ago. And nothing will be different in a week from now than it is today. As my high school AP US Government teacher reminded us when we got to the Clinton years, impeachment is a political act, not a legal one. The politics of narrow-minded members of congress scared for their seats are not the politics of justice—they’re the politics of fear.

I’ll agree with my dad that last night was wild and fun (mostly “Crazy Rich Asians,” but also the news, I suppose), but I’ll push back on his claim that this is the beginning of the end for the Trump presidency. That comes when Democrats regain control of the House and Senate.

My best guess at how candidates can do that? Sigh. The usual boring shit. Stick to message. Don’t get distracted by the distractions (like impeachment? Did I just ruin my argument?). Call up Vlad and pay off whatever porn stars you need to clinch the nomination. I don't know.

And maybe spring for a nice blue blazer rather than an ostrich coat.